MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON THE SVAR MODELS

KILICARSLAN Zerrin, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey

DUMRUL Yasemin, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey

Abstract:
Since oil is a major source of energy, many sectors of the economy are directly or indirectly dependent on oil. Therefore, oil price shocks have many important effects on the global economy. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Turkey by using SVAR analysis for the period from 2005Q1 to 2017Q2. Our empirical evidence confirmed that the increase in the price of crude oil in Turkey leads to a decrease in economic growth while increasing crude oil prices, inflation and real exchange rate.

Keywords: Oil prices; Inflation; Exchange Rate; Real GDP, SVAR Models

JEL Classification: C32; E30; F41

Volume: 69, Issue: 5

Pages: 55 - 72

Publication date: December, 2017

Download the article: http://economice.ulbsibiu.ro/revista.economica/archive/69505kilicarslan&dumrul.pdf

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